Monday, November 5th 2018
WASHINGTON (Sinclair Broadcast Group ) — If history is a guide, the party that secures the largest margin of independent voters controls Congress. As Republican and Democratic enthusiasm crests ahead of the official opening of polls Tuesday morning, it’s the less predictable independent voters who will be the most likely determining factor in the midterms.
Control of the House of Representatives has flipped three times in the last 25 years and each time, it was the party that rallied the largest share of independent voters that won the majority. In 1994, independents favored Republican candidates by a 14-point margin, enough to usher in a GOP majority. In 2006, Democrats regained the majority with an 18-point lead among independents. And in 2010, Republicans won independent voters by a margin of 19 percent and control of the House.
To flip the House again, Democrats need to gain 23 seats and there are at least 75 competitive races, according to the latest assessment by the Cook Political Report. Republicans are poised to hold the majority in the Senate, as Democrats try to defend 24 seats and oust Republican incumbents in close races in Arizona, Texas and Tennessee.
As of October, about four in ten registered voters consider themselves independent, dwarfing the number of voters in either party’s base. Yet for how much influence they wield, political analysts argued that neither party has effectively courted these voters.
“It doesn’t look like either party apparatus is doing a particularly good job of picking up independent voters,” said Michael Montgomery, a political scientist and owner of Montgomery Consulting, Inc. a Michigan-based nonprofit. “Both party organizations seem to see this as a mobilization election and so are focusing on their respective bases.”
President of the Hispanic Leadership Fund, Mario H. Lopez agreed that both Republicans and Democrats have treated 2018 as a “base election” to the detriment of outreach to independents. “In a lot of these tight races, the independent vote is going to make a big difference,” he said.
On the eve of the election, it is not yet clear how the majority of independents will vote, but returns on early voting, voter enthusiasm and other indicators suggest they are coming out in larger numbers than previous elections.
“It doesn’t look or feel like a normal midterm election,” Lopez said. “Both sides are motivated and I think independent voters are engaged.”
Overall, President Trump’s popularity among independent voters has slumped since the 2016 election, when he won 46 percent of independents, a four-point advantage over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.
Independents are less enthusiastic about the president in 2018. Fewer than 40 percent of independent voters approve of President Trump’s job performance ahead of the Tuesday election which will be seen as a referendum on Trump’s presidency.
On a generic ballot, Democrats tend to have an edge over Republicans among independents. A recent poll by Quinnipiac University showed 50 percent of independent voters preferred Democratic candidates versus 38 percent who preferred Republicans.
“From what we know about voter turnout already… I believe independents are as fired up to participate in this election as Democrats and Republicans,” said Tracy Sefl, a Democratic communications strategist.
However, when it comes to the issues voters care most about, the picture gets blurry and it is less clear which party will emerge with a clear majority in the House and Senate. In the months leading up to the election, voters have consistently listed health care, the economy and immigration as their top issues.
On the economy and taxes, voters said they believed Republicans can do a better job than Democrats by a margin of eight or nine percent, according to a Quinnipiac poll. Democrats did much better on health care, with voters preferring Democrats by a margin of 17 percent. Similarly, voters preferred Democrats’ immigration policies 50 to 40 percent over Republicans.
HEALTH CARE
Throughout the 2018 election season, Democrats have seized on health care as their top issue and it appears to be working. Even Republican strategist Karl Rove acknowledged health care as the Democrats’ “most potent national policy issue in the 2018 midterms.”
Democrats have dedicated 50 percent of their advertising dollars to health care, running more than 130,000 health care ads in the month of September alone, according to Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization. In many of the most contested House and Senate races, health care is the defining issue. Health care is also the top issue in more than three-quarters of races where Republican seats are considered at risk by the Cook Political Report.
As a result, voters have consistently ranked health care as the “most important” issue in their decision about who to vote for this year, including about one-third of independents. Though less important for registered Republican voters, those concerned about health care worry most about high costs and guaranteed coverage.
While President Trump and Republicans have spent the past two years cutting away portions of the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, and marginally tamped down the rising costs of health insurance, the majority of voters are giving Democrats high marks. Consistently, registered voters say Democrats will do a better job handling health care than Republicans by a double-digit margin in multiple polls.
“They’re hemorrhaging on health care,” said Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez said on CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday. Perez argued that Republicans and President Trump are desperate to change the subject away from health care because Democrats have a clear advantage in the debate.
Despite the headache Obamacare gave Democrats in 2010 when the party took a “shellacking” by Republicans, public support for the Affordable Care Act surged in 2017 after President Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress unsuccessfully tried to repeal the law. Democrats in tight races have focused attack ads on Republicans who supported the repeal of the health care law and along with it protections for individuals with preexisting conditions. Other Democrats are campaigning to expand coverage, promising universal health care or Medicare for All.
The Democrats’ strong closing argument on health care compelled President Trump to weigh in with a strongly-worded, though factually inaccurate editorial denouncing the Democrats’ health care platform as a “radical socialist” turn.
IMMIGRATION
Even though health care is a top issue for voters and Democratic candidates, immigration has largely dominated the national debate.
Asked what issues they have heard political candidates talk about “a lot,” the majority of registered voters (58 percent) said immigration, according to a recent poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation.
President Trump has turned up the volume on the issue with a series of controversial announcements in the days leading up the Nov. 6 election, including threatening to repeal birthright citizenship and deploying more than 5,000 active-duty troops to the U.S.-Mexico border to head off a slow-moving caravan of a few thousand Central American migrants seeking asylum in the United States.
Late last week, the Trump campaign released an incendiary 30-second political advertisement featuring an illegal immigrant convicted of killing two cops. The ad counterposes the convicted murdered with thousands of immigrants trying to reach the United States. The ad has been denounced as “racist” and both NBC and Fox News banned the ad from airing on their networks. Facebook also blocked the ad from receiving paid distribution, arguing it violates the company’s policies “against sensational content.”
Some polls suggest Trump’s tough immigration rhetoric may backfire against Republicans, with a margin of voters showing a preference for Democrats on the issue. Others, like a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, indicate Trump’s emphasis on illegal immigration has elevated the issue for his base. Immigration has also been a leading issue in tight races in Arizona and Texas where Republicans hope to hold onto their seats.
Trump has clearly determined that illegal immigration is a winning issue for him and his party. Trump even described the migrant caravan as “a blessing in disguise.”
While Trump’s stance on immigration is certain to rally Republican voters, Sefl warns it may depress turnout for independents.
“You have independents who are looking at what’s happening on that issue and saying what Trump is proposing is senseless and inhumane. And they look at Democrats and wonder why can’t find a way to deal with this issue,” she said. Rather than settle, the issue of immigration may deter some independents from casting a ballot. “I think it could really turn off independents.”
Overall, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to name immigration as an issue very important to their vote.
THE ECONOMY
The state of the economy has been one of the best but possibly least utilized good news stories of the last two years. Unemployment is at record lows, GDP grew at 3.5 percent in the third quarter and wages have increased at their highest rate since 2009.
Under this economic boom, independent voters have shown an increasing level of confidence in the economy, according to the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment study.
Based on the conventional wisdom that voters tend to support the incumbent party when the economy is doing well, this should be a positive sign for Republicans. Moreover, Republicans tend to get higher marks from voters in polls on the economy and taxes.
“There is no doubt that Republicans hold an edge on the economy,” said Lopez. “Whether or not their candidates have taken advantage of that and to what degree is a different story.”
President Trump has touted the strong economy at rallies and other speeches but those stories have gotten lost in the flurry of headlines covering his latest statement on immigration.
“I imagine a lot of Republicans would rather be talking about the job numbers than sending troops to the southern border,” Sefl said. It’s a mistake for Republicans not to take advantage of the economy, she continued, “but more specifically, it’s a calculated mistake President Trump is making.”
On ABC “This Week” Sunday, Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel said the past two years’ economic performance “is a great closing argument” for Republicans in close races. When asked why President Trump wasn’t pushing that message in the final days of campaigning, McDaniel argued he was focused on the economy. “The president’s talking about it. He’s talking about a lot of other things. You know, he can walk and chew gum at the same time.”
Meanwhile, former President Barack Obama has not shied away from taking credit for the economic upturn while campaigning for Democrats in competitive races. At a rally in Florida over the weekend, Obama pointed to the long record of economic growth which started before he left office. “Right now Republicans are all ‘Look the economy’s so good,’” he told supporters. “Where do you think that started? When did that start?”
